Before examining the electoral landscape itself, it is essential to understand a phenomenon shaping public perception: the persistent belief among many supporters of Rafael López Aliaga that national polls are manipulated, biased, or “bought.” This perception is not unique to Peru; it appears in polarized democracies worldwide. What makes it relevant in 2026 is how strongly it influences the way a segment of the electorate interprets every new survey.
Several well‑documented mechanisms in objective psychology help explain why this belief emerges and why it remains resilient even when multiple polling firms show similar trends.
Confirmation Bias
People naturally seek information that validates what they already believe.
For many López Aliaga supporters, the expectation is that he should be rising or leading. When polls show otherwise, the mind protects its prior belief by rejecting the data rather than updating the expectation.
Motivated Reasoning
López Aliaga’s base often views him as an outsider confronting entrenched elites. Pollsters, by contrast, are perceived as part of the establishment. When results are unfavorable, the simplest explanation becomes that the establishment is trying to suppress him.
Ingroup Identity Protection
Political identity functions like social identity.
When a candidate becomes a symbol of a group’s values, any negative information about him threatens the group’s cohesion. Believing that polls are manipulated protects the group’s sense of strength and unity.
The Illusion of Majority
Supporters often live in social environments where López Aliaga is popular—church communities, business circles, WhatsApp groups, or neighborhoods with strong conservative leanings. This creates the impression that “everyone” supports him. When national polls contradict this lived experience, distrust of the data becomes the default explanation.
Cognitive Dissonance
When individuals invest time, identity, or resources in a candidate, negative polling results create psychological discomfort.
Blaming the polls reduces that discomfort more easily than revising deeply held beliefs.
Understanding these mechanisms does not delegitimize anyone’s political preference. Instead, it provides a framework for understanding why perceptions of polling manipulation persist even when multiple independent firms report similar trends.
The Peruvian Presidential Race as of April 4, 2026: A Volatile Final Stretch
The 2026 Peruvian presidential campaign has entered its decisive week with a landscape far more unstable than it appeared just one month ago. From January to early April, polling firms such as Ipsos, Datum, and IEP have consistently placed Keiko Fujimori and Rafael López Aliaga at the top of voter preferences, though with significant fluctuations. The unexpected rise of Carlos Álvarez has transformed what once looked like a predictable race into a three‑way contest for the second spot.
Polling Trend Chart: Fujimori, López Aliaga, Álvarez (Jan–Apr 2026)
Data table for the chart
| Month | Keiko Fujimori | Rafael López Aliaga | Carlos Álvarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 13.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 |
| Feb | 14.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 |
| Mid-Mar | 13.0 | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| Late-Mar | 12.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 |
| Apr 4 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 9.1 |
This visualization should highlight three key dynamics:
- Keiko Fujimori remains consistently ahead, with mild fluctuations.
- Rafael López Aliaga shows a clear downward trend beginning in March.
- Carlos Álvarez displays the strongest upward momentum, especially in late March.
1. Early 2026: Keiko Leads, López Aliaga Close Behind
In January and February, Ipsos surveys showed Keiko Fujimori comfortably ahead with 12–14%, while Rafael López Aliaga followed closely with 10–12%.
A large undecided bloc — often 27–29% — made any definitive projection difficult.
2. March: Carlos Álvarez Surges, López Aliaga Slips
By mid‑March, a surprising trend emerged:
- Carlos Álvarez rose from 5–6% to 11–12% in some Ipsos and Datum cuts.
- In several regional simulations, he even appeared tied with or slightly above López Aliaga.
Meanwhile, López Aliaga experienced a steady decline:
- From 11–12% in February
- To 10–11% in mid‑March
- And down to 8–9% in some regional simulations
This shift coincided with:
- Increased media visibility for Álvarez
- Natural fatigue around López Aliaga’s long campaign
- A reorganization of conservative and anti‑establishment voters
3. Late March: The “Triple Technical Tie”
By March 27, polls showed an extremely tight race.
Ipsos – Perú21 (March 27 – April 2)
- Keiko Fujimori: 12–13%
- Carlos Álvarez: 11–12%
- Rafael López Aliaga: 10–11%
- Jorge Nieto: 8–9%
- Alfonso López Chau: 7–8%
For the first time, Álvarez appeared second in some cuts, pushing López Aliaga to third in Lima and several macro‑regions.
4. IEP (March 28–31): Reordering Confirmed
IEP’s study reinforced the trend:
- Keiko Fujimori: 10%
- López Aliaga: 8.7%
- Carlos Álvarez: 6.9%
- Roberto Sánchez: 6.7%
- “No elige”: 30%
Álvarez did not surpass López Aliaga here, but the upward trajectory was unmistakable.
5. April 4 Simulacro (Perú21): Keiko Strong, Álvarez Competitive, López Aliaga Weakening
The April 4 mock vote showed:
- Keiko Fujimori: 13.7%
- Carlos Álvarez: 9.1%
- Rafael López Aliaga: 8.7%
Regionally:
- Keiko dominates the Amazon region (26.3%) and remains strong in Lima.
- Álvarez surprises with 14.5% in Lima, his core base.
- López Aliaga loses ground in rural areas and the northern and central regions.
This is the first major simulation showing Álvarez clearly above López Aliaga in Lima, a crucial battleground representing over 30% of the national electorate.
6. Consolidated Trends as of April 4
Keiko Fujimori
- Leads all polls
- Typically 12–14%, rising to 25–27% in simulacros after redistributing undecideds
- Highest probability of reaching the runoff
Rafael López Aliaga
- Down 2–4 points since February
- Declines in Lima and rural regions
- Still competitive, but no longer the clear second place
Carlos Álvarez
- The candidate with the strongest momentum
- Climbed from 5–6% to 11–12%
- Surpasses López Aliaga in Lima in several studies
- Increasingly viable for a runoff spot
7. The Decisive Bloc: Undecided and Blank Votes
Across all polls:
- Blank/null/none: 16–21%
- No precise: 9–20%
- IEP “No elige”: 30%
Peruvian electoral history shows that a late 5–8 point concentration can completely reorder the second place.
8. Objective Conclusion
Based on all available evidence:
- Keiko Fujimori remains the most stable candidate with the highest likelihood of reaching the runoff.
- Rafael López Aliaga shows a downward trend through March and early April.
- Carlos Álvarez is the fastest‑rising contender, especially in Lima.
- The race is highly competitive, with margins within the error range and a massive undecided bloc capable of reshaping the final order.
